Analysis

Analysis papers

Does Scotland want a different kind of Brexit?

This new report by John Curtice assesses what ‘the people’ are hoping will emerge from the Brexit negotiations. We first reported on this issue last November, and this new report follows this work up with the findings of a second round of interviews that were conducted in recent weeks.

Hard – but not too hard: Much more on what voters want from Brexit

This new report by John Curtice assesses what ‘the people’ are hoping will emerge from the Brexit negotiations. We first reported on this issue last November, and this new report follows this work up with the findings of a second round of interviews that were conducted in recent weeks.

Understanding the Leave vote

What were the ‘real’ reasons behind the Brexit vote? The purpose of this report is to provide a high-level overview of the main findings from an analysis of the latest and highest quality data. We hope that it will stimulate debate, discussion and further research.

What do voters want from Brexit?

This paper reports on how a representative sample of voters responded to a wide range of questions on what they would like to be included in agreements negotiated between the UK and the EU.

The economics of Brexit in voters’ eyes

Or, Why the remain campaign failed.
This paper analyses what influenced people’s attitudes in the EU referendum towards the economic arguments for and against EU membership and considers the implications for the ensuing debate about the terms on which the UK should seek to leave.

Seminars

Scotland and Europe - The Public View (30 March 2017)

At the event, kindly hosted by Patrick Harvie MSP, Prof John Curtice will present findings from the most comprehensive survey yet of the kind of relationship with the EU that people in Scotland want in the wake of the UK-wide vote to leave the EU.

The seminar will also report on attitudes towards Scotland having a closer relationship with the EU than does the rest of the UK – and the impact of the Brexit debate on attitudes towards independence.

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When and where

Date: 30th March 2017

Time: 1-2pm

Location: The Fairfax Somerville Room, Scottish Parliament Building, Edinburgh, EH99 1SP

Speakers:

  • Professor John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow, NatCen and UK in a Changing Europe
  • Patrick Harvie MSP
  • Alex Neil MSP

Britain after Brexit - The Public View
(21 March 2017)

At the event, kindly sponsored by Ian Austin MP, Prof John Curtice will present findings on public attitudes to the kind of Brexit deal the UK should secure – everything from pesticides and water quality to university funding and workers’ rights. He will also set out public opinion on the crucial issues of free trade, immigration and contributions to the EU Budget.

Hilary Benn, Chair of the Parliament’s Brexit Committee, will respond to the findings and give his take on the politics of giving the public what they want.

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To register: Please fill in this quick form.

When and where

Date: 21st March 2017

Time: 1-2pm

Location: Committee Room 9, House of Commons, London, SW1A 0AA

Brexplanations in the dock (7 December 2016)

Many theories and explanations have been advanced by commentators since the UK voted to leave the EU in June. Some argue that these reflect a major realignment of traditional political tribes, while others point to the way the Referendum campaigns were run.

This event in Westminster will showcase findings from the first major synthesis of high quality data on who voted which way and why. A panel discussion will follow, interpreting the findings and what they mean for the future of UK politics.

This event will help charities and interest groups understand how to reframe their policy positions and messaging in order to better reach both the public and major political parties. We will also discuss what kind of Brexit might be acceptable to the public in the light of their voting motivations.

Panel:

  • Chuka Umunna (MP for Streatham)
  • Roger Harding (Shelter)
  • James Ball (Buzzfeed)
  • John Curtice (NatCen Social Research)

Presentation:

  • Kirby Swales, NatCen Social Research (presenting findings)
  • Nancy Kelley, NatCen Social Research (chair)

When: Wednesday 7 December, 10:00am – 11:30am

Where: St Matthew’s Conference Centre, 20 Great Peter St, Westminster, London SW1P 2BU

To register: Please fill out this form.

For all other queries please contact phoebe.couzens@kcl.ac.uk

What does Leave mean? (28 November 2016)

Half day conference from The UK in a Changing Europe

Former Vote Leave CEO Matthew Elliott will deliver a keynote speech giving his unique insider account of how and why the Leave campaign won the EU referendum and what this means now.

ITV News national editor Allegra Stratton will be chairing a panel with Professor John Curtice, Professor Matthew Goodwin, and Ben Page (Ipsos MORI) who will be discussing what we have learned about the vote to leave the EU and the public’s attitudes towards Brexit subsequently.

More details to be announced.

When: Monday 28 November. This is a half day conference. Doors open at 9am. The event will start promptly at 9:30am. A continental breakfast will be provided.

Where: British Academy, 10-11 Carlton House Terrace, St. James’s, London SW1Y 5AH

To register: Please RSVP to UKandEU@kcl.ac.uk

For all other queries please contact phoebe.couzens@kcl.ac.uk

What does Britain want from Brexit? (16 November 2016)

Kindly sponsored by Ian Austin MP, NatCen Social Research held a seminar at Westminster to discuss new research into what the British public want from Brexit.

Speakers:

The seminar looked at the latest findings from the NatCen Social Research What UK Thinks: EU project.

NatCen has carried out a new survey of the British public seeking to understand what they want from Brexit.

The survey uncovers how the public views:

•         Britain’s membership of the single market;

•         free movement of people;

•         what should happen to EU nationals already in Britain;

•         whether Britain should continue to abide by certain EU regulations.

Download the presentation

Can we believe the EU referendum polls?
(25 May 2016)

After the failure of the polls to predict the outcome of the General Election and online and phone polls so far painting rather different pictures of the referendum race, the veracity of opinion polls is under scrutiny as never before. Four weeks before the public is asked to decide on Britain’s membership of the EU, this event examined how far we should believe the Referendum polls.

Speakers:

  • Professor John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow, NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe
  • Peter Kellner, commentator and former President of YouGov Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling at ComRes

Download the presentation

Public attitudes to Brexit
(24 February 2016)

A new report from NatCen’s British Social Attitudes survey will be launched at Westminster. Based on data collected on the latest BSA survey, it will provide the most in depth look yet at what people think the consequences of leaving the EU would be and how, if Britain were to remain a member, they want the EU changed.

Speakers:

Download John Curtice’s presentation

Download Matthew Goodwin’s presentation

Which way could the EU Referendum go?
(2 December 2015)

Kindly sponsored by Ian Austin MP, NatCen Social Research held a seminar at Westminster on how the British public views the EU and what is likely to influence their vote in the referendum.

Speakers:

  • Professor John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow, NatCen
  • Rachel Ormston, Head of Social Attitudes, NatCen

Download the presentation