A Brexit Compromise? Attitudes towards a Closer Relationship with the EU

23 January 2023

In two blogs earlier this month (see here and here), we argued that (i) over the last year there has been a marked swing in favour of rejoining the EU, and  (ii) that the principal reason for this was a decline in the proportion of Leave voters who would now vote to stay out of […]

Two Years On: Why Have Some Leave Voters Lost Faith in Brexit?

6 January 2023

In our previous blog on attitudes towards Brexit since the UK left the EU single market, we noted that after oscillating up and down in 2021, the last twelve months witnessed a marked decline in support for being outside the EU. On average, the polls now suggest that 57% would vote to rejoin the EU, […]

Two Years On: A Decline in the Popularity of Brexit

5 January 2023

It is now two years since the UK left the EU single market and customs union following the conclusion of a Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU at the very end of 2020. That agreement was the final stage of a Brexit process instigated by the majority vote to Leave […]

How Might Voters React to a ‘Swiss-style’ Brexit?

20 December 2022

A month ago, The Sunday Times ran a front-page story in which it claimed that ‘senior government figures are planning to put Britain on the path towards a Swiss-style relationship with the European Union’. Although outside the EU, a series of bilateral deals mean Switzerland has access to the single market and implements freedom of […]

Are The Channel Crossings Undermining Support for Brexit?

20 December 2022

Immigration was one of the central issues in the 2016 EU referendum campaign. One of the benefits it was argued would flow from Brexit was that the UK would be able to ‘take back control of its borders’. The apparent contrast between that claim and the substantial and increasing flow of people crossing the English […]

Has The Fiscal Crisis Influenced Attitudes towards Brexit?

27 October 2022

The reaction of the financial markets to Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget has had a dramatic impact on the political landscape. It has both brought down a Prime Minister and seen support for the Conservatives plummet in the polls. But what difference, if any, has it made to attitudes towards Brexit? Is there any evidence that has […]

Do Leave Voters Still Support The Conservatives?

7 October 2022

The dramatic collapse in support for the Conservatives in the wake of the ‘fiscal event’ a fortnight ago raises an intriguing question – what has happened to the Brexit divide in Britain’s electoral politics? The key foundation underpinning Boris Johnson’s electoral success in 2019 was to persuade three-quarters of those who had voted Leave in […]

Could ‘Culture Wars’ Rekindle the Brexit Divide?

22 September 2022

It is often asserted that Brexit has fallen off voters’ agenda. Remain voters, it is said, have accommodated themselves to the fact that we have left the EU, while the issue has lost its importance for Leave voters. The validity of the first of those statements is doubtful – as our post-Brexit poll of polls […]

Why Has Brexit Become Less Popular?

7 September 2022

The latest poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for UK in a Changing Europe suggests that, among those expressing a preference, 54% would now vote to join the EU while only 46% would back staying out. That is quite a turnaround from the position just six months ago. Then, 55% were saying they would vote […]

The Importance of Non-Voters

1 July 2022

The latest in the series of Brexit tracker surveys undertaken by Redfield & Wilton for UK in a Changing Europe finds that in a referendum on whether the UK should re-join or stay out of the EU, 53% would now vote to re-join, while 47% would back staying out. This represents a turnaround from previous […]

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