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Is There A New Geography of Brexit?

17 August 2018

Much excitement has been created this week by an analysis of YouGov polling data released by the anti-Brexit Best for Britain campaign and first reported by The Observer. Using a statistical technique (multi-level regression and post-stratification) that, inter alia, helped YouGov anticipate that the Conservatives would lose their overall majority in last year’s general election, […]


Why Chequers Has Gone Wrong for Theresa May

17 July 2018

No less eight than eight polls wholly or partly about Brexit have been conducted since the Cabinet gathered at Chequers last Friday week (6 July). Both the statement about Brexit that was issued at the end of that meeting and the white paper published the subsequent Thursday have received a critical response in some quarters, […]


What Might Voters Make of the Chequers Agreement?

12 July 2018

It cost the Prime Minister a couple of cabinet ministers along the way, but the British government has now outlined the future relationship it would like the UK to have with the EU post-Brexit. A three page summary of its vision was published following a Cabinet away day at Chequers last Friday, while today a […]



Two Years On: Many A Doubt But Few Changed Minds

22 June 2018

Britain spent just four months debating whether it should leave the EU or not after David Cameron had renegotiated our terms of membership. In contrast, the country has now spent as long as two years debating how the majority decision to leave should be handled. It is a debate that has left many voters doubtful […]


The Lords Amendments – What Do Voters Want MPs To Do?

11 June 2018

Tomorrow and Wednesday, the House of Commons will consider the 15 amendments that the House of Lords made to the EU Withdrawal Bill against the government’s wishes. Three of these amendments in particular have been the focus of most attention. The first two would require the UK government (i) to keep the UK in the […]


How Brexit Became A Problem For Nicola Sturgeon

7 June 2018

When the outcome of the EU referendum was announced, it looked at first glance as though it represented a golden opportunity for the nationalist movement. The divergence between the majority Remain vote in Scotland and the majority Leave vote across the UK as a whole provided what must have seemed to nationalists like a perfect illustration […]


How Brexit Shaped The Local Election Vote

7 May 2018

It is perhaps not immediately obvious that local elections might be of interest or relevance to the Brexit process. After all, such elections are meant to be about who can best empty the bins rather than who can cut the best deal with Brussels. However, in practice, the broad ups and downs in party performance […]


What Do Voters Make of the Customs Debate?

3 May 2018

It appears that the question of what customs arrangements the UK should have with the European Union after 2020 is becoming the first crunch issue in the negotiations about Britain’s future relationship with the EU. The Cabinet is reported to be having difficulty in reaching a decision on what arrangement the UK should seek, while […]


Have Attitudes Towards a Second Referendum Reached a ‘Turning Point’?

16 April 2018

There has recently been increased talk about the possibility of holding another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU once the Brexit negotiations have come to some kind of conclusion. A few weeks ago, two former Prime Ministers, Tony Blair and Sir John Major, voiced their support for the idea. More recently, much of the speculation […]


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