The Stalemate Continues

11 May 2016

The local and devolved elections on May 5th have come and gone, and so (apart from a by-election for Sadiq Khan’s former parliamentary seat of Tooting on June 16th) the political world can focus its mind exclusively on the EU referendum. Not that polls of voting intentions in the EU referendum stopped appearing in the […]

Firing a Blank?

29 April 2016

Perhaps one of the most frustrating aspects of being a politician is that you can fire what you think is some of your most powerful electoral ammunition – only to discover a few days later that, for all the media buzz and excitement you have generated, voters have seemingly been wholly unmoved. The Remain campaign certainly […]

A Good Week for Remain?

22 April 2016

This appears to have been a relatively encouraging week for Remain in the polls. Of six polls published between Monday and Wednesday that had used the same polling method as in a previous survey, five identified at least a small shift in favour of Remain. In the event, the one that did not – by […]

Has Either Side Made Progress with their Arguments in the EU Campaign?

15 April 2016

Four internet polls this week have suggested the referendum race – which today enters its fully regulated phase so far as campaign spending is concerned – continues to be very tight.  Both YouGov (in one poll) and TNS put the two sides on 50% each (once Don’t Knows are left to one side) while with a 48% […]

A Lot of Polls – But Still Much Uncertainty

8 April 2016

Although local and devolved elections taking place on May 5th might have been expected to compete for the limelight, the EU referendum is proving to be remarkably intensively polled. All in all, no less than 21 published polls of referendum vote intention were conducted wholly or partly in March, or more than one every other […]

Are Phone Polls More Accurate than Internet Polls in the EU Referendum?

30 March 2016

One of the striking features of polling of referendum vote intentions to date has been that polls conducted by phone have been producing more favourable results for Remain than those undertaken via the internet. Typically, once Don’t Knows are left to one side, the former have been suggesting that support for Remain is around the […]

ORB Poll Is First Phone Poll To Put Leave Ahead

15 March 2016

One of the most important features of polling in the EU referendum to date has been a marked and consistent divergence between those polls conducted by phone and those undertaken via the internet. The former have consistently suggested that Remain are well ahead; across all phone polls conducted since the beginning of this year Remain […]

Is David Cameron Now Leader of the Opposition?

29 February 2016

One key message from the opinion polls in advance of the conclusion of David Cameron’s renegotiation of the UK’s terms of membership was that if the Prime Minister came back from Brussels with what he insisted was a good deal for Britain, then the public would swing in behind a Remain vote. YouGov, for example, […]

Is Scotland Really Keen on the EU?

26 February 2016

The EU Referendum race is hotting up. Last Friday evening, over an ‘English dinner’ in Brussels, David Cameron secured what he considered to be a successful renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership of the European Union. But subsequently there has been considerable political division on the issue within Tory ranks, with a number of senior […]

From Euroscepticism to Withdrawal: It’s the Economy, stupid!

23 February 2016

To date, the opinion polls have left us a very uncertain picture of the referendum race. Most phone polls suggest that Remain are well ahead, while nearly every internet poll reckons the two sides are more or less neck and neck. Meanwhile, relatively few polls have asked enough questions about people’s perceptions of the consequences […]

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