How Leave Won the Battle but Remain May Still Win the War

23 June 2016

Late yesterday and today have seen the inevitable last minute flurry of polls of voting intentions in the referendum. Polls have been released by six pollsters based in the UK, Opinium, TNS, ComRes, YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Populus, while there have also been a couple of polls from overseas pollsters, Survey Monkey (USA) and IBRIS […]

Are Perceptions of Risk Now Helping Remain?

22 June 2016

We are now (obviously) in the final phase of the campaign – and thus into the period when, if it is going to happen, the process whereby voters switch back to the status quo (i.e. Remain) because of concern about the risks of change might now be expected to be in evidence. Indeed, the polls […]

Which are Right? Phone or Internet Polls? New Evidence from a NatCen Innovation

20 June 2016

One of the marked features of polling during the referendum campaign has, of course, been the divergent findings of internet and phone polls. Most of the time, polls done via the internet have put Remain and Leave neck and neck while those undertaken by ringing people up on the phone have put Remain ahead. Inevitably […]

A Little Relief for Remain?

20 June 2016

It is often said that what goes down must come back up again. We thus perhaps should not be surprised that, after a sharp decline in support for Remain during the course of last week, four polls conducted over the weekend should have reported some recovery in its position. Even so, that will not stop […]

Leave Make A Leap

18 June 2016

On Thursday morning journalists and politicians were avidly discussing the apparent implications of two more opinion polls released within hours of each other. Yet no sooner had they begun to digest their results and the political world – and many ordinary citizens – were shocked by the murder of the Labour MP, Jo Cox, on […]

Another Poll Makes Waves (For A While)

12 June 2016

Not for the first time in recent weeks, a poll has made waves amongst commentators and the markets. The latest example came from ORB in an internet poll that appeared in Saturday’s Independent. Its headline figures were Leave 55%, Remain 45%. Although the Leave tally in the poll was boosted by two points as a […]

A Scintilla of Movement to Leave?

8 June 2016

The week is only half over, yet it has already been one of the more dramatic so far as referendum polling is concerned. Two polls have claimed that Leave now enjoy a record or near record lead, while two others contained some evidence that Leave may have gained some ground. Perhaps this is the first […]

Added functionality: Filter by pollster, filter by mode, and combine responses

7 June 2016

What UK Thinks: EU exists to allow academics, journalists, campaigners and members of the public to access and analyse all of the key poll and survey data available on what the UK public thinks about the future of Europe and Britain’s membership of the EU. In order to enhance users’ ability to analyse the data […]

Another week, another false dawn?

3 June 2016

It is, in truth, becoming an all too familiar story. Both last week and the week before, many a media headline gave the impression that there had been a significant shift in the polls in favour of Remain. In both instances we argued here that a cooler, more systematic look at the polls suggested there was insufficient […]

Project Fear: Success or Failure?

27 May 2016

As last week, much of the media commentary on the polls this week has suggested that Remain has made a decisive breakthrough. On Sunday The Observer kicked off with the contention that its latest poll from Opinium showed there had been a substantial shift towards Remain amongst Conservative supporters. This was followed by a poll […]

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