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Introduction to our ‘EURef2 Poll of Polls’

28 September 2018

One of the most widely cited features of this site before the EU referendum was a ‘poll of polls’. This was simply an average of the level of support for Remain and Leave as recorded in the six most recently conducted polls of referendum vote intentions. Its purpose was to smooth out some of the […]


What Might Lead Voters To Change Their Minds About Brexit?

5 September 2018

The Brexit negotiations are coming to a crunch. By the end of the year (if not sooner), the UK and the EU need to agree the legal text of the treaty that will give effect to the UK’s withdrawal, together with the outline of an agreement as to what the UK’s long-term relationship with the […]


A Question of Wording? Another Look at Polling on a Second Referendum

28 August 2018

The question of whether or not there should be a second referendum has been one of the hottest topics in the Brexit debate during the summer. In part, the debate has been stimulated by the relatively adverse reaction with which the Chequers Agreement was greeted, a reaction that led some, such as the former Conservative […]


Is There A New Geography of Brexit?

17 August 2018

Much excitement has been created this week by an analysis of YouGov polling data released by the anti-Brexit Best for Britain campaign and first reported by The Observer. Using a statistical technique (multi-level regression and post-stratification) that, inter alia, helped YouGov anticipate that the Conservatives would lose their overall majority in last year’s general election, […]


Why Chequers Has Gone Wrong for Theresa May

17 July 2018

No less eight than eight polls wholly or partly about Brexit have been conducted since the Cabinet gathered at Chequers last Friday week (6 July). Both the statement about Brexit that was issued at the end of that meeting and the white paper published the subsequent Thursday have received a critical response in some quarters, […]


What Might Voters Make of the Chequers Agreement?

12 July 2018

It cost the Prime Minister a couple of cabinet ministers along the way, but the British government has now outlined the future relationship it would like the UK to have with the EU post-Brexit. A three page summary of its vision was published following a Cabinet away day at Chequers last Friday, while today a […]



Two Years On: Many A Doubt But Few Changed Minds

22 June 2018

Britain spent just four months debating whether it should leave the EU or not after David Cameron had renegotiated our terms of membership. In contrast, the country has now spent as long as two years debating how the majority decision to leave should be handled. It is a debate that has left many voters doubtful […]


The Lords Amendments – What Do Voters Want MPs To Do?

11 June 2018

Tomorrow and Wednesday, the House of Commons will consider the 15 amendments that the House of Lords made to the EU Withdrawal Bill against the government’s wishes. Three of these amendments in particular have been the focus of most attention. The first two would require the UK government (i) to keep the UK in the […]


How Brexit Became A Problem For Nicola Sturgeon

7 June 2018

When the outcome of the EU referendum was announced, it looked at first glance as though it represented a golden opportunity for the nationalist movement. The divergence between the majority Remain vote in Scotland and the majority Leave vote across the UK as a whole provided what must have seemed to nationalists like a perfect illustration […]


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