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What Mandate Did Voters Give on June 23rd?

13 October 2016

If it has done nothing else, the signals sent by Conservative ministers last week about what they think Brexit means have instigated a keen debate amongst everybody else about what in fact it should mean. Those who believe that the UK should have greater control over immigration were cheered that achieving that objective appears to […]


The People’s Priority? Free Trade or Immigration Control?

7 September 2016

Much of the debate about what Brexit might mean in practice has focused on the difficulties the UK might face in attempting to remain a remember of EU single market in respect of goods and services while insisting on being able to impose restrictions on freedom of movement, that is the right of EU citizens […]


Brexit: Post-Referendum Hopes and Expectations

19 August 2016

The high drama of the post-referendum period has given way to the relative quiet of high summer, albeit that Labour finds itself using the supposed ‘silly season’ to debate for a second year in a row who should be its leader. But that, of course, does not mean that the questions raised by the vote […]


Buyers’ Remorse?

8 July 2016

Now that the UK has voted to leave the EU, it faces an important new question. What relationship, if any, would it like to have with the European Union in future – and what kind of relationship with the UK might the EU itself be willing contemplate? The options would appear to range from the […]


How Leave Won the Battle but Remain May Still Win the War

23 June 2016

Late yesterday and today have seen the inevitable last minute flurry of polls of voting intentions in the referendum. Polls have been released by six pollsters based in the UK, Opinium, TNS, ComRes, YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Populus, while there have also been a couple of polls from overseas pollsters, Survey Monkey (USA) and IBRIS […]


Are Perceptions of Risk Now Helping Remain?

22 June 2016

We are now (obviously) in the final phase of the campaign – and thus into the period when, if it is going to happen, the process whereby voters switch back to the status quo (i.e. Remain) because of concern about the risks of change might now be expected to be in evidence. Indeed, the polls […]


Which are Right? Phone or Internet Polls? New Evidence from a NatCen Innovation

20 June 2016

One of the marked features of polling during the referendum campaign has, of course, been the divergent findings of internet and phone polls. Most of the time, polls done via the internet have put Remain and Leave neck and neck while those undertaken by ringing people up on the phone have put Remain ahead. Inevitably […]


A Little Relief for Remain?

20 June 2016

It is often said that what goes down must come back up again. We thus perhaps should not be surprised that, after a sharp decline in support for Remain during the course of last week, four polls conducted over the weekend should have reported some recovery in its position. Even so, that will not stop […]


Leave Make A Leap

18 June 2016

On Thursday morning journalists and politicians were avidly discussing the apparent implications of two more opinion polls released within hours of each other. Yet no sooner had they begun to digest their results and the political world – and many ordinary citizens – were shocked by the murder of the Labour MP, Jo Cox, on […]


Another Poll Makes Waves (For A While)

12 June 2016

Not for the first time in recent weeks, a poll has made waves amongst commentators and the markets. The latest example came from ORB in an internet poll that appeared in Saturday’s Independent. Its headline figures were Leave 55%, Remain 45%. Although the Leave tally in the poll was boosted by two points as a […]


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