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A Little Relief for Remain?

20 June 2016

It is often said that what goes down must come back up again. We thus perhaps should not be surprised that, after a sharp decline in support for Remain during the course of last week, four polls conducted over the weekend should have reported some recovery in its position. Even so, that will not stop […]


Leave Make A Leap

18 June 2016

On Thursday morning journalists and politicians were avidly discussing the apparent implications of two more opinion polls released within hours of each other. Yet no sooner had they begun to digest their results and the political world – and many ordinary citizens – were shocked by the murder of the Labour MP, Jo Cox, on […]


Another Poll Makes Waves (For A While)

12 June 2016

Not for the first time in recent weeks, a poll has made waves amongst commentators and the markets. The latest example came from ORB in an internet poll that appeared in Saturday’s Independent. Its headline figures were Leave 55%, Remain 45%. Although the Leave tally in the poll was boosted by two points as a […]


A Scintilla of Movement to Leave?

8 June 2016

The week is only half over, yet it has already been one of the more dramatic so far as referendum polling is concerned. Two polls have claimed that Leave now enjoy a record or near record lead, while two others contained some evidence that Leave may have gained some ground. Perhaps this is the first […]


Added functionality: Filter by pollster, filter by mode, and combine responses

7 June 2016

What UK Thinks: EU exists to allow academics, journalists, campaigners and members of the public to access and analyse all of the key poll and survey data available on what the UK public thinks about the future of Europe and Britain’s membership of the EU. In order to enhance users’ ability to analyse the data […]


Another week, another false dawn?

3 June 2016

It is, in truth, becoming an all too familiar story. Both last week and the week before, many a media headline gave the impression that there had been a significant shift in the polls in favour of Remain. In both instances we argued here that a cooler, more systematic look at the polls suggested there was insufficient […]


Project Fear: Success or Failure?

27 May 2016

As last week, much of the media commentary on the polls this week has suggested that Remain has made a decisive breakthrough. On Sunday The Observer kicked off with the contention that its latest poll from Opinium showed there had been a substantial shift towards Remain amongst Conservative supporters. This was followed by a poll […]


The Divergence Between Phone and Internet Polls: Which Should We Believe?

25 May 2016

The divergence between the estimates of the relative strength of Remain and Leave in internet polls and those obtained by phone polls has been the most marked feature of polling in the EU referendum to date. Typically, internet polls have suggested that the race between the two sides is very close, whereas those conducted by […]


Time for a Cool Head and an Open Mind?

20 May 2016

It has been a week of considerable polling excitement in the EU referendum campaign. First, on Tuesday the Daily Telegraph reported a phone poll from ORB that, once Don’t Knows were left aside, put Remain on 58%, up four points on the company’s last phone poll in the third week of April. Then at Wednesday […]


The Stalemate Continues

11 May 2016

The local and devolved elections on May 5th have come and gone, and so (apart from a by-election for Sadiq Khan’s former parliamentary seat of Tooting on June 16th) the political world can focus its mind exclusively on the EU referendum. Not that polls of voting intentions in the EU referendum stopped appearing in the […]


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