A Divided Country Applies To Leave

28 March 2017

Nine months after the UK voted by 52% to 48% in favour of leaving the EU, tomorrow the UK government will finally give formal notice to the EU that it wishes to leave. During the intervening period the government has developed an outline of the kind of deal that it would like to negotiate with […]

Hard – but not too hard: more on what voters want from Brexit

21 March 2017

Next Wednesday (29 March) Theresa May will give formal notice under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon that the UK wishes to leave the European Union. In so doing she will be implementing the ‘people’s will’, as reflected in the outcome of the referendum on Britain’s EU membership held last June. However, as many […]

Government vs. The Lords: Where Do Voters Stand?

3 March 2017

Now that the House of Lords has opted to amend the Bill designed to give the Prime Minister the authority to give the EU formal notice that the UK wishes to leave, the House of Commons will be invited to consider once again whether EU citizens currently living in the UK should be automatically given […]

Is Brexit Causing Voters To Switch Parties?

21 February 2017

One of the intriguing and important questions about the fallout from the EU referendum is whether it will serve to reshape British party politics. Both UKIP (in the pro-Brexit camp) and the Liberal Democrats (in the anti-Brexit one) are making their very different perspectives on whether and how we should leave the EU the corner […]

Is Labour’s Brexit Dilemma Being Misunderstood?

16 February 2017

Two by-elections next week in historically safe Labour seats are generating more than the usual level of interest for such contests. The principal opposition party rarely loses a seat it is defending in a by-election – it has only happened six times since 1979. Yet it is being seriously suggested that the Labour party could lose […]

Wales: A Nation Divided?

4 February 2017

Like England, Wales voted narrowly last June in favour of leaving the EU. Here Roger Scully of Cardiff University presents the latest evidence on how attitudes towards Brexit have evolved there since. The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll conducted at the beginning of January by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University provides the latest […]

Does Mrs May’s Brexit Plan Meet Voters’ Expectations?

31 January 2017

A fortnight has now passed since Mrs May unveiled her ‘Plan for Britain’, the most detailed indication yet of the UK’s likely negotiating stance in the forthcoming talks with the EU on the terms of its withdrawal.  In the speech that launched her Plan, she made it clear that the UK government has no interest […]

Where Stands Public Opinion on Brexit Six Months On?

23 December 2016

Britain’s voters did not just surprise many a commentator on June 23rd  – they also surprised themselves. In one poll conducted on referendum day itself Lord Ashcroft found that 70% reckoned Remain would win and only 30% that Leave would do so, while in another YouGov ascertained that 52% expected Remain to win and only […]

How Leave Won Amongst the Politically Disengaged

20 December 2016

One of the key points of speculation during the EU referendum campaign was what impact voter turnout might have on the outcome. Support for Remain was known to be higher amongst younger people, who generally tend to be less likely to vote, but also higher amongst graduates, who tend to be more likely to do […]

Understanding the Leave Vote: What Tipped The Balance?

7 December 2016

Six months on from the EU Referendum, today we publish a new analysis paper that looks at the question ‘Who voted Leave and why?’. The paper uses new data from NatCen’s mixed mode random probability panel as well as the extensive evidence available in the British Election Study internet panel. The paper reveals that the […]

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