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First Post-Tusk Poll: Fine But Not Enough?

5 February 2016

Fine as far as it goes – but it does not go far enough. That seems to be the message from voters on the draft deal that Mr Cameron has negotiated with Donald Tusk, President of the European Council – at least if a poll from YouGov for today’s Times, the first to be conducted since the […]


Immigration and the Economy: The Two Key Issues in the Referendum?

28 January 2016

What are the issues that matter most to voters in the EU referendum campaign? This kind of question is often addressed in opinion polls by asking people directly which are the issues that matter most to them in whatever vote is about to take place. However, approaching the question this way assumes that voters are […]


Might Scotland Vote to Leave the UK if the UK Votes to Leave the EU?

17 January 2016

One of the points of contention between the two sides of the EU referendum debate is whether a vote to leave the UK would potentially constitute a threat to the future of the Union. The former Conservative leader, Lord Hague, was accused by those in the Leave camp of peddling a scare story when over […]


Immigration and Euroscepticism: The Rising Storm

22 December 2015

The public has become acutely aware of changes in immigration rates and attributes these changes to the UK’s membership of the European Union. This has been a direct consequence of the growth of immigration from the EU accession countries in Eastern and Central Europe. Inevitably, this process has important implications for the likelihood of a […]


What A Contrast! Phone Polls Put Remain Well Ahead

16 December 2015

The uncertainty surrounding just how close the referendum race really is has grown today with the publication of two further polls of referendum vote intention, one from ComRes for the Open Europe think tank, the other from Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard. In contrast to the picture of a very tight race painted by […]


Poll Excitement Intensifies the Spotlight on the Renegotiations

16 December 2015

Two polls released yesterday helped create a flurry of excitement in advance of this week’s meeting of the European Council at which, we are promised, the renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership will be on the agenda. One, from Survation, suggested that Leave were narrowly ahead (by 51% to 49%), while the other, from ICM, […]


Podcast: The Polls at the End of 2015

15 December 2015

In the latest in Chatham House’s series of podcasts exploring the key questions in the lead-up to the EU Referendum, I speak to regular What UK Thinks: EU contributor Professor Matthew Goodwin about the current state of public attitudes towards membership of the EU, what lessons can be learned from the Scottish referendum, and how close […]


Has the Referendum Race Really Narrowed?

9 December 2015

Followers of our Poll of Polls will be aware that it has been suggesting that the referendum race has narrowed somewhat during the course of the autumn. At the end of September it stood briefly at Remain 54% Leave 46%, for most of October it read, Remain 53% Leave 47%, but since the middle of […]


Disunited kingdom: How far apart are we on the EU?

2 December 2015

The surprise outright victory of David Cameron’s Conservative party at this year’s General Election means that we are now certain there will be a referendum on Britain’s future in the European Union (EU). At some point before the end of 2017 we will be asked whether we think the UK should remain a member of […]


What is the likely effect of different arguments on Britain’s EU referendum?

27 November 2015

What arguments will have the strongest effects on Britain’s EU referendum? Will citizens be more strongly influenced by arguments that focus on economics, or those that stress political or cultural points? To answer these questions we undertook an online experiment, testing the effects of positive and negative arguments that focus on economics, political influence or […]


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