Are Phone Polls More Accurate than Internet Polls in the EU Referendum?

30 March 2016

One of the striking features of polling of referendum vote intentions to date has been that polls conducted by phone have been producing more favourable results for Remain than those undertaken via the internet. Typically, once Don’t Knows are left to one side, the former have been suggesting that support for Remain is around the […]

ORB Poll Is First Phone Poll To Put Leave Ahead

15 March 2016

One of the most important features of polling in the EU referendum to date has been a marked and consistent divergence between those polls conducted by phone and those undertaken via the internet. The former have consistently suggested that Remain are well ahead; across all phone polls conducted since the beginning of this year Remain […]

Is David Cameron Now Leader of the Opposition?

29 February 2016

One key message from the opinion polls in advance of the conclusion of David Cameron’s renegotiation of the UK’s terms of membership was that if the Prime Minister came back from Brussels with what he insisted was a good deal for Britain, then the public would swing in behind a Remain vote. YouGov, for example, […]

Is Scotland Really Keen on the EU?

26 February 2016

The EU Referendum race is hotting up. Last Friday evening, over an ‘English dinner’ in Brussels, David Cameron secured what he considered to be a successful renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership of the European Union. But subsequently there has been considerable political division on the issue within Tory ranks, with a number of senior […]

From Euroscepticism to Withdrawal: It’s the Economy, stupid!

23 February 2016

To date, the opinion polls have left us a very uncertain picture of the referendum race. Most phone polls suggest that Remain are well ahead, while nearly every internet poll reckons the two sides are more or less neck and neck. Meanwhile, relatively few polls have asked enough questions about people’s perceptions of the consequences […]

Did the ‘English Dinner’ Make Any Difference? First Evidence from Survation

21 February 2016

David Cameron eventually secured (what he regarded as) a successful conclusion to his attempt to renegotiate aspects of Britain’s relationship with the EU over dinner in Brussels on Friday evening. Yesterday he gained approval for this deal from a majority of his cabinet and announced that the referendum will take place, as anticipated, on 23 […]

Memo for the PM’s Journey to Brussels

18 February 2016

Doubtless the Prime Minister will have had plenty to read on his journey to today’s vital European Council meeting in Brussels. Most of his reading material will, of course, have been about the stances of his fellow leaders on the outstanding issues in the renegotiation and how their concerns might be met. But maybe also […]

First Post-Tusk Poll: Fine But Not Enough?

5 February 2016

Fine as far as it goes – but it does not go far enough. That seems to be the message from voters on the draft deal that Mr Cameron has negotiated with Donald Tusk, President of the European Council – at least if a poll from YouGov for today’s Times, the first to be conducted since the […]

Immigration and the Economy: The Two Key Issues in the Referendum?

28 January 2016

What are the issues that matter most to voters in the EU referendum campaign? This kind of question is often addressed in opinion polls by asking people directly which are the issues that matter most to them in whatever vote is about to take place. However, approaching the question this way assumes that voters are […]

Might Scotland Vote to Leave the UK if the UK Votes to Leave the EU?

17 January 2016

One of the points of contention between the two sides of the EU referendum debate is whether a vote to leave the UK would potentially constitute a threat to the future of the Union. The former Conservative leader, Lord Hague, was accused by those in the Leave camp of peddling a scare story when over […]

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