Introduction to the What UK Thinks: EU Poll of Polls

Posted on 19 October 2015 by John Curtice

One important feature of opinion polls is that the estimates they produce can vary from one reading to the next when in reality public opinion amongst the population as a whole has not changed at all. This is because all polling is based on interviewing a sample of a thousand or so people and drawing inferences from this as to the position amongst the population as a whole. Even if such polls are conducted perfectly, their estimate of how many people hold a particular view – such as whether they wish to remain in or leave the EU – can easily vary by up to three percentage points on either side of the true value in the population as a whole purely by chance. So if one poll estimates that, say, 48% wish to remain in the EU and another then says that 52% wish to do so, it could well be the case that in reality nothing has changed at all, and that opinion remains more or less evenly balanced at around 50% support for both sides.

So how can we get a better grip on whether the balance of opinion really has changed? One approach is to build on the fact that while one poll can say 48% and another 52% purely by chance, random variation is much less likely to be the explanation if, say, four or five polls previously said the figure in question was 48% but then the following four or five all say it is 52%. In those circumstances we would conclude that the balance of opinion really has changed.

This is the insight on which our poll of polls is based. It shows the average level of support across the six most recently conducted polls. We recalculate this figure every time as new poll of referendum voting intentions is released, thereby providing a constantly updated picture (i.e., a moving average) of how opinion does or does not shift as the campaign progresses.

The result is a less erratic picture than the one painted by individual polls. You can see this by comparing the trend over time in our poll of polls with the one we find when looking at individual polls of referendum vote intentions.

Of course, not even these poll of polls figures should be taken uncritically. Even when we average across as many as six polls, our estimate will still be subject to some random fluctuation. So not too much should be made of a one point shift up and down in our estimate, or at least not until the new estimate is confirmed after several more polls have been released.

At the same time, polls are not necessarily conducted perfectly, a fact of which we were all made aware immediately after May’s UK general election, when collectively they all underestimated Conservative and overestimated Labour support. A poll of polls cannot insulate us against the risk of collective failure by the polling industry.

Meanwhile, less dramatically but no less importantly, the polling companies may systematically disagree with each other about the level of support enjoyed by ‘leave’ and ‘remain’. In that event, changes in which companies’ polls contribute to the poll of polls may induce a degree of artificial instability. We thus always give details of which companies conducted the polls that contribute to our latest poll of polls, while, where necessary, we will warn in our Commentary section if there is a risk that a change in whose polls are included may have induced a change in the estimates.

We also have to bear in mind that one option open to respondents to any poll is to say that they ‘don’t know’ how they will vote. However, this is not a choice that is open to them on polling day. Thus, in order to provide the clearest possible indication as to the referendum outcome to which the polls are pointing, in calculating the poll of polls we leave aside those who say ‘don’t know’. Thus our estimate of the percentage who will vote ‘Leave’ or vote ‘Remain’ is based on just those who state either choice. That, of course means that the two percentages will always add up to 100%.

Finally, bear in mind that while any set of six polls may well have all been conducted at much the same time, equally it is possible that quite a few weeks may have elapsed between when the first and the last was conducted. The poll of polls is thus inevitably less up to date the longer the period over which the polls on which it is based were conducted. You will thus see that we also always provide details of the dates between which the interviewing (fieldwork) for the polls included in the poll of polls took place.

John Curtice

By John Curtice

John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU website.

62 thoughts on “Introduction to the What UK Thinks: EU Poll of Polls

  1. Well, Have it your way if you like but in essence we no longer have a UK Government. We have abdicated from looking after our own affairs and given the keys to Brussels!

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  2. Sadly, it seems to me that many people want to vote Brexit because we have a weak Prime Minister and people are fed up of some of our other Prime Ministers. Well, me too. But I can’t see how voting Brexit is going to resolve our own government problems which come about by having a voting system that doesn’t reflect the will of the people and an unelected second chamber – it’s hardly a democratic institution!
    I’m not voting Remain because of the economic arguments (as I believe that so many unbiased institutions have now told us that there will be significant problems if we leave that only someone hellbent on pursuing an illusion would vote Brexit if they’ve listened to the arguments) but because I want to be in the Premier League not League 2. I want to be in a better team, not just standing on the sidelines.
    I want to work with other nations to secure peace in Europe, especially at a time when Russia is ‘buzzing’ the UK, not to mention Lithuania and other former USSR nations I want to travel visa-free around Europe and work and play wherever I want to without worrying about being ill or having to secure work permits (my job relies entirely on us being in Europe). I want to enjoy the rich cultural mix of other countries in my own country – I have friends (among others) who are Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish and Hungarian, who also love learning about our culture, language and lifestyles. I want toi be part of a future decided by the next generation, a modern generation, not the failed last generation grimly hanging on to some non-existent dream of a 1950s land of milk and honey. Not some ignorant generation who think that, despite most benefits being paid to pensioners not migrants, despite most GP and hospital visits being undertaken by pensioners, somehow all the UK’s problems are the fault of the EU. Well, they’re not and if successive UK governments hadn’t pursued such silly agendas and told so many lies then many of the problems we currently have would not exist. The EU isn’t an unelected body – we just had an EU election. Did YOU bother to vote, because most people didn’t. The EU is less bureaucratic than our own government – bureaucracy’s a necessary part of democracy.
    Finally, it is the UK that has been pushing for Turkey to join the EU, against the wishes of many other member states. Perhaps you might want to have a word with your MEP about that before you start blaming the EU. Inform yourselves, people and I don’t just mean reading the Daily Express – Europe is shocked at our ignorance – we have a lot to lose here and so much to gain if we vote to remain.Report

    1. Well said, I couldn’t have put it better myself. I wonder what sort of a country we will be if we vote leave – xenophobic? bigoted? intolerant? Hopefully, the hitherto tolerance of the British will resurface at the ballot box.Report

  3. The latest joint intervention by Blair and Major is a real warning to us that there is more than the logics of being in or out of the EU! We trusted them both at one point and we were especially subjected to Blair’ s blatant false assertions about weapons of mass destruction which led us into the Iraq war and for what? And we never really got a satisfactory answer to David Kelly’s alleged suicide! Blair’s tenure of office, bolstered by his relationship with George Bush has certainly proved very beneficial to him in the final analysis! So what is it all about? Are they really so concerned about the UK being part of the EU or is there yet another agenda? It seems to me that there is such personal importance to so many people involved in the EU result, eg: bankers, various institutional figures etc. Such desperation!
    It smacks much more of individual personal aspirations than the interests of the run of the mill UK citizen! Please everybody, make your own judgement, the risk of staying in is far, far greater than getting out!
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  4. James and Kate > we both feel that if we stay in the E.U the whole of Britain may as well be thier Puppets with strings to boot, and have no say in how the N.H.S is run and let it continue to lose money because of the amount that Britain has to pay to the E.U each week that would let us save and build a up-to-date new hospital a week to allow the British people to be treated fast and with more care and efficency then we are at the present time. I strongly feel that a vote to remain will further damage this country and allow terrorism to escalate further and put this country in grave danger as there is no control on how many foreigners are let into this country. I wont my 7 year old daughter to grow up in a safe country and not live in fear as should be the right of all British children, it’s our responsibility as parents to protect our children so they can live safely. also no one really knows how the EU works, and as such we have no intention to vote to remain when nobody really understands how the work, it ludicrus. thank you for reading this from James and kateReport

  5. After a Brexit we need Eurosceptic ministers to negotiate the divorce with the EU. Leave it to Cameron and he will give it all back – it would be EU membership by another name. The EU are not going to let a little thing like a vote against them derail their project. June 23 is just a battle in a longer war.Report

  6. If there ever is an EU Army would they be able to get the agreement of 28 nations in order for it to be effective? Assuming of course, that they know what they are going to use it for?Report

  7. I read in today’s paper that the EU already has plans for an EU army but they are going to great lengths to keep it under wraps until the day after our referendum. If that isn’t dishonest I don’t know what is.Report

  8. The ship we call the EU is making almost no headway in the economic ocean, unlike Asia and the Americas for example. Indeed at the stern down in Greece, Italy, Spain and others at that end, the ship hangs very low in the water in imminent danger of submerging. Passengers there are suffering great austerity and very high unemployment. That’s why so many are now rushing to our end of the ship in Northern Europe. This has been an ongoing theme for some years and the likely result will be for the whole ship to capsize.
    While we still have our own very serviceable vessel called UK I suggest we return to it and let those who wish to remain aboard the EU meet their inevitable fate without taking us down with them.Report

  9. Immigration will remain a problem whether we stay or leave the EU unless more money is spent to police the arrangements for controlling immigration.Even then we cannot completely control our borders against millions of people on the move but we can
    Allow immigrants in like Doctors,nurses And care assistants who we desperatley need to keep our elderly from filling all the hospital beds. By the way we will have to increase taxes to spend more money on immigration control.Report

  10. Most polls are conducted through an online process. This would favour the more technology minded who would be younger and more metropolitan centred (inners). Many older voters, who may not neccessarily be internet savvy are more likely to be conservative and lean toward an independant nation. These key voters are being excluded from the online polls distorting voter preference analysis. There is every chance that there is upsurge in leave votes due to this overlooked voter base. Here’s hoping.Report

  11. The economy is already in a precarious situation, if we leave the economy is bound to shrink further.
    I wish i could say that at least everything will be the same if we leave, but honestly deep down i know that if we end up leaving the economy is going to shrink. If it shrinks, wages will shrink too, as they have done in the last recession. Anyone who thinks that leaving will have no impact on our lives well to be honest they are deluded. Inflation will rise as it did the last recession and income will most definitely shrink as employers will take advantage of the labour market available to them and reduce incomes.
    It will take years for the economy to re-establish properly as we are still in the grips of recession now.
    this argument should have been put foward when the countrys economy is in a better state.

    Please excuse my grammer I just wanted people to know that you dont have to be a rocket scientist to know that things are definatly going to get worse not better The Out politicians that want us to take a jump out of the frying pan straight into the fire.

    Those are my views and i don’t try to sway for or against, just say to all think before you vote on where the country is going to be next year onwards:)
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    1. The economy in the UK is in a better shape than most other Western economies with the exception of the USA. Most EU economies with the exception of a few Eastern European ones are pretty stagnant and getting worse. . The EU is a very protectionist block. It is uncompetitive which is the reason it has such difficulty signing trade deals with the outside world. We would be much more competitive without the EU protectionist tariffs and regulations. Once out of the EU there will be an immediate 8 – 10% reduction in the cost of living because all the protectionist tariffs and regulations imposed by the EU will be lifted. Our Government will then be able to introduce incentives like lower setting up costs, lower taxes on start up equipment and many other incentives which successful economies offer to new inward investors to attract foreign investment. Now it is unable to do most of these things because it is hampered by EU regulations. Economies grow when they are competitive not when they are not.Report

      1. If you believe that, then why does George Osborne and all of his shadow finance political opponents think we should remain?

        Surely, if they thought that we would be an ‘immediate reduction in the cost of living’ and a possibility of ‘lower set up costs’ etc they would be encouraging us to leave?

        In fact they are ALL saying remain. Report

        1. Under Alex Atkins May 16th, I left an opinion – long though it is. It is just my opinion for what its worth.

          The reason we are in this position, came about due to Brussels standing firm on some serious issues they are not willing to tell us about presumably because they believe we are all too stupid, but these are clearly causing a great deal of grief among some of the EU members in my mind.

          Brussels calls the shots in this very big picture and its a complex one, and its becoming ever more so, as it engulfs more and more nations and then hurds those nations into a single huge state. Ultimately governed by Brussels, which is basically a power & financially driven group of elite’s who control what happens in the EU.

          In its simplest form of understanding, for anyone who has played a game called “Age of Empires” ?, this today, is what this EU game is all about. One group of individuals taking possession of all that is out there.

          Does everyone understand what was behind the crash in the oil price??
          Many oil cos. went out of business because of it !
          Research OPEC, the EU, Iraq, Kurdistan, Gulf States etc.

          OPEC countries felt threatened and decided to punish the Western Gov’s. via their oil cos. by keeping production up. Iran and her oil is another story.

          Inevitably the war that Cameron refers too, may well occur if we stay in the EU in my opinions. Turkey may be the catalyst for this in years to come.

          But partly answering Sue’s question – its the Establishment that has grouped up, I suggest here, due to pressure from Brussels. Remember that Cameron went there to request some reforms a month or more ago? and that should those reforms not be discussed then he would take the issue of membership of the EU (Political side of the EU) to the electorate on voting out of the Political side of the EU (2 x A4 sheets held his replies from the EU).
          With NO bending shown by Brussels to the issues raised.
          See Turkey+Farage+EU on YouTube if you can find it. Farage stood up for Cameron !!

          Interesting that at that time he was for OUT – but now he is for IN. As are his colleagues on all sides and other Gov. depts. Remember – Brussels calls the shots – Has “Our establishment.” been talked to by Brussels ?
          Hence they are now for Staying In ?

          Its not easy doing the research, and it takes so much time working out the “between the Lines” bits in order to get at what must be the truth.

          As I understand – see it:-
          Nothing stopping us being part of the European Economic Union if WE still wish to be.
          Just a departure from the Political Union that was never actually part of the deal when Britain 1st signed up ! nor was the single state, single currency, that this is heading for.

          Good luck whatever you decide – and same to all.Report

    2. Wages are shrinking because of the EU. a Plumber can expect to earn 15% less this year due to being undercut by cheap eastern European labour. UK Jobs in factories are being advertised solely in eastern Europe, paid minimum wage but under cutting Brits in other ways . Many agencies buy sub standard housing that could command £350 -£500 a month in rent from a Family then put 10 migrant workers in a 3 bedroomed house and charge up to £100 a week each deducted from that minimum wage. thereby stopping a family man from competing in the job market . The poor poles are as exploited as anyone.
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      1. This is happening in Shirebrook at Sports Direct.We seem powerless to stop it.What a mess.Its no good for the Polish workforce,and its no good for the younger folk of Shirebrook who need the work.The village was once a thriving mining area,and it could have recovered if the regeneration scheme had been managed without the influences of greed,and EU law.I still believe the poorer Nations of Europe would be better helped by investment in their own Country.Allowing migration from one poor area to another only benefits the owners of Sports Direct type companies.It saps the life out of the area to which they move where housing is not available,and the schools etc are already over stretched.It also demoralises the original population,who feel forgotten.In short,it solves nothing but creates more problems.
        It sickens me to hear the remain voters who only appear to be concerned with their own finances,and dont give a thought to the effect the above is having on others.Yes,i fully understand we dont want a sudden fall in our living standards,but please be aware that if we remain,living standards in the UK will gradually fall,as they have been doing since the iron lady threw the working classes to the Lions in the name of Global sourcing and EU membership.It will continue to affect more people as the banks of Mum and Dad gradually run out.If we get out,no,it wont be easy,but given some strong leadership,we may be able to recover the situation.Report

  12. It is time to get rid of the so called EU and take back what it is ourrs we have stood alone Before and can do it again Report

  13. Much of the UK manufacturing sector is foreign owned, some would say the majority.. For example Nissan, Toyota, Honda, BMW Mini, Ford, Vauxhall,,Land Rover and other Car companies. There are no significant UK producers. The same applies to the electronics sector. We delude ourselves in believing thbasede UK has a significant home owned base. We are told to look for other markets. The Multinationals based here already.We risk losing so many significant companies in these and other markets.Report

    1. The companies which are manufacturing here do so because the legal and financial framework under which they operate is financially favourable. If the Government offers them less regulation, competitive taxes, and lower costs they will continue to manufacture here because it will be in their interest to do so. Manufacturers look at their bottom line nothing else. You make it more advantageous for them to be here and they will stay here. Nothing else matters to them.Report

    2. they come here primarily because English is the language of commerce. they will stay if its worth it they will leave if it isn’t as they do now. Kimberley Clark recently shut its plant in Barton upon Humber and moved to the Czech republic, that was while we are in the EU. Don’t think BMW wont move MINI to Poland, If they can make a quick bob or two.
      whether we stay or leave.Report

  14. That’s really not a good argument. We can’t turn the clock back, we are where we are. Look instead at the consequences of if we leave or if we remain. There are no international or national major bodies supporting an Out vote. Latest inaccurate comment from the Out team are that the NHS would be better off, but again the Royal College of Nursing (who ought to know) says the NHS will be better off if we remain In. The argument from the ‘outers’ that ‘it’ll be alright on the night’ is simply an indication of the leap into the unknown they want us to take. I don’t intend to risk my or my childrens future on something as ludicrous as that, I’m voting In 🙂Report

    1. yes we are where we are overpopulated.Waiting weeks to get a doctors appointments you are lucky if your children
      have a place in a good school.I know decent young couples struggling to get a place for their kids in a good school.
      Havent you noticed the roads are getting busier every day.Not to mention the NHS.A weak P.M.who tells lies and
      breaks manifesto pledges.Heaven help us if we remain with him in charge He has lost the trust of the british people.
      I would rather trust the leave campaign as they seem more decent and honest.Dont like unfair play and it will backfire
      No one expects its going to be easy either way.People will vote on the things which affect them in their daily lives
      so at the moment that seems to be immigration.Common sense should prevail and deliver freedom.Report

      1. Ah well I hope you’re prepared to pay for it then. I can see folks like you moaning when prices etc go up if we leave, and do you really think the roads will clear overnight? You need some reality in your life 🙂Report

        1. Jon I respect the views of people who wish to remain how sad you are not mature enough to
          have mutual respect.Report

    2. we aren’t voting to stay in the EU as it is. we are voting to stay in the behemoth it will become with Turkey, Ukraine,Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro Bosnia and Kosovo all needing constant bail outs Turkey alone will be entitled to 20 billion euros a year in subsidy. Then there is their combined 150 million inhabitants getting freedom of movement throughout Northern Europe. Theres another 140 MEPs to veto our wishes. Turkey alone will have 89 to our 77.
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  15. For those who think they might vote remain , and those trying to make up their minds, only have to ask themselves ONE Question. Just One. IF THE UK WAS NOT YET IN THE THE EU, and the Question was SHOULD WE JOIN THE EU – YES ? OR NO ? After all you have seen of the migrants and the events in Greece France , Germany and Belgium, as well as Calais and the Channel Tunnel, What Would be your Answer? If YES Then vote REMAIN If NO Then vote LEAVE It`s That Easy.Report

  16. Those Ex Pats had better hurry up and get back as there will be no room in Great Britain if we stay in the crumbling European State and there certainly will not be any decent services or even improved infrastructure, Great Britain just can’t afford a huge number of immigrants with our present commitments in Wars and Overseas Aid. Great Britain’s current debt is approximately £1,6 Trillion and increasing daily!Report

  17. dont talk rubbish about ex pats being sent home.. theyd be passing the immigrants we had here then wouldn’t they.. and I think these polls must be taken in a hippy convention as everyone I KNOW wants OUT, and NO ONE I KNOW has ever been polled. OUT OUT OUT. Report

  18. Apart from all stupid and ideotic reasons why to stay in E.u, We cannot and is treason for any other country to govern our people as we are a sovereignty state. It would be very treasonous for myself to vote to stay in the E.u. So point out some facts 1. Will we be safe from terrorist if we join the E.U? nope look at Belgium and France. 2. What Financial benefit will our country receive? None We be better of. if we end up also changing our currency then we are going into a failed currency which is on the verge of crashing 3. immigration well they using turkey and making deals with turkey, making a pathway for them to join Europe but many problematic countries border turkey so i don’t really see it a solution but of a problem. Very Very Silly move if we end up in the E.uReport

  19. Having been pro EU for the last forty years , I have switched to leave. My reasons are that recent events , the Greek financial crisis last year , the total lack of unity in dealing with the refugee crisis and the inability of the EU to reform .
    Germany imposed thirty years of austerity on Greece .
    People are complaining that the UK cannot deal with the immigration problem , again Greece is poor and has a population the size of greater London . Over 120,000 refugees arrived on the islands this year ! The EU has done almost nothing to help , but put up fences Across Europe.
    The remain campaign want reform from within . We have tried that for decades with no success. Look at the Common agricultural policy ! CAP .
    Europe is broken . There is no Union , only unelected , unaccountable dictatorship .Report

  20. We lived in Portugal for several years and, as Richard says, above, also used the state health service there. It was excellent, though very busy, and all the British , Dutch, French, German and other EU nationals we know, living there, also use it. The only people we came across who used private health care were from outside the EU – i.e. South Africa, the USA etc.
    However, that, surely, does not mean we know for sure that this agreement can not continue if we vote to leave. It seems to me that most of the fundamental questions about what will happen if we leave or stay are unanswerable now! Report

    1. well as the NHS is sent the bill for your treatment in a Portugese hospital, anyway. I think you’ll find it wasn’t Portugal paying for it anyway. And if they want their people treated here, then they either keep doing it, or their own pay for treatment here too.
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  21. we should stay in Europe as at least 250,000 ex pats will be heading returning to the UK mainly because of the medical agreement between the UK and Europe which will be a bigger than any immigrant problem than the UK has at presentReport

    1. You know that for sure do you? As far as I am aware most people abroad currently finance their own healthcare as the host countries only offer rudimentary free medical services at best. Anyway even if they were all to come home that number you quote is less than one years nett immigration. As immigration is likely to be greatly reduced post Brexit we would still be better off than if Cameron allows things to drift on as they are, which seems to be all that he is offering.Report

      1. We live in Spain and do not have private health insurance,we use
        the Spanish Health service.It is not rudimentary and offers a really
        good service,better than the NHS I would say.Some people have
        private medical cover but a great many use the Spanish Health
        service and hope to be to continue to do so after the vote.

        Richard.Report

      2. Fred, you are about UK residents in the EU using private medicine, they commonly use the public services.

        If there was a big return following a Brexit, which is highly likely if there is not a speedy agreement on access to respective health services, those returning are significanlty older than immigrants to Britian from EU countries.

        Those retruning from retirement in Spain will be bigger consumers of heatlh and social care services than the younger immigratnts from the EU.

        In addition, the younger EU immigrants are economically active and contribute to growth and therefore to affording the cost of the health service.

        Those returning from retirement in Spain and elsewhere are both economically inactive and big consumers of health care.Report

      3. Fred,

        I have to say I agree with the others. I lived in Malta for 10years – now back working in the UK. I didn’t need to use the health care system, but my children did and it was excellent. Where are you getting this ‘rudimentary’ idea from? I think you will find Europe has developed substantially in recent decades!

        I want my children to benefit from the freedom to work in the EU that I have had and not close our borders like the Brexitors want.

        As for living and working in the UK – I am in the housebuilding industry (a small/medium sized company) – about 75 homes a year. The industry as a whole benefits hugely from migrant labour. The industry does not want a Brexit. Of all circa 30 staff I have spoken with, only 2 want Brexit!

        On another note, my brother employs 42 people in his commercial furniture design and manufacturing business in Somerset. He has a turnover of circa £8million – about 55% of which is from business in Europe, 5% in USA and the rest in the UK. He does not want Brexit as he will be laying off staff. He will keep his existing contracts in the EU but will find it hard to get new business. Both of these businesses are hardly the PLCs that the Brexiters keep claiming are the ‘vested interest’ of those who are pro Europe.

        The sooner we vote to STAY IN the EU the better.Report

    2. Wow! What cheek! A country of 64 million people is being asked to give up the right to govern itself so that 250,000 well paid professionals or comfortably off retirees continue to get free medical care in Spain or Portugal.
      Now I have heard it all!!! Add to that that you get cheaper roaming mobile phone roaming charges and we can see the really important issues on what is worth voting for.

      Do we really deserve to be a sovereign nation if this how we think and what really matters to us as a country? Report

        1. In my opinion & with greatest respects to all on either side: Maybe some have forgotten what it was like before the EU, or maybe were not around at that time? but the same old reasons are being trumpeted again:- “Good for Business, Good for Jobs and Good for people” – its definitely good for business as they get off with not having to pay any UK tax after joining the EU !, Its good for Industry as they are now almost gone since joining the EU ! – doubtless the bosses are all in Caribbean or Bahamas, as in, retired with no tax to pay. And good for jobs & People? What jobs & which people?

          Out of the EU, just means moving back to where we were in making our own trade deals with countries that we already have trade deals with: Asia, China, Africa, Etc.

          And I note that no one has talked about the oil off take, the EU gets from us on top of that 10 billion which no one can say for sure where it goes ? Rothschild’s comes to mind there, and the secretive world of Brussels.

          Check out YouTube over EU & Turkey and include Farage or Cameron etc in that search.
          Little wonder Russia has been kicking off this past few years!

          Complicated I know – but Turkey is fast becoming a NEW OIL Hub for that region, arise ISIS and the Syrian problem that has become a waste land thanks to the EU, UK, Russia, US, Turkey all wanting a finger in the pie – so After Turkey comes Syria which is just next door – and a possible new entrant for the EU ?
          Turkey is the Hub for Kurdistan oil, and Syrian.
          This is where Cameron is talking about a 3rd World War.
          The EU claims there are over 5000 ISIS fighters roaming around the EU thanks to its open borders policy – say no more!
          So lets stay out of it please – though the Gov. & EU is doing the opposite = Oil you see – and a lot of it !

          Watch out for the NHS and TTiP = it will be private health taking your wealth if you want to see a doctor – Our gov. has no choice but to sell off IF we stay in AND assuming, that formerly secret agreement gets the nod & wink !

          I am definitely out for the safety of this country and its people, for the financial well being of the people, for the NHS, the safety of our borders, etc. etc. etc.

          And John, being a PI trader out there – yes – if the international interest rate rises – yes, we and many of the other EU countries may go belly up on debt.
          That’s why the World Bank, IMF etc. are keeping or reducing interest rates because they know that issue.
          Being out means oil and the billions of cash (which is set to rise significantly – and very shortly) can be used to better the condition of this country.

          Being out, is not something that worries me at all – I’m not worried about how straight a cucumber is or how bent a banana is, or how long my carrots are ?
          A cow is a cow not a bovine ### ### ## ########### ### ####, but we are a cash cow for the EU and if no one has figured it out already – they are petrified of us leaving, because there are many more planning the same.
          Should we leave the EU – the EU will be the worse for it – not us.

          Cameron went in with plans for a reform of the EU, he walked out with 2 sheets of A4 as his reward. He vowed to have a referendum for leave or stay if they did not bend.
          One may assume he was niffed and despite going ahead with a referendum, he was got at by Brussels and now he and the rest of the Est. are ALL for staying !

          How interesting that David Cameron & the Est. should change its mind on what is good for us all ?
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      1. Alex you are talking out of your personal exhaust system and I can even smell it here in Spain where as a Pensioner living on a state-pension, all is not the land of milk and honey. I could not live in my pension in the Uk and that is why I am over here. Why should I not be entitled to health care wherever I live? It is toe-rags like you who most likely worship the lying IDS that make people’s blood boil over here but I really do have to say that this is the same old politics of envy coming from you that has been heared in the UK for a hundred years or more. “If I cant ‘ave it – you cant ‘ave it neiver (sic).-

        Get up off your but and make a contribution to society as we did all our livers and stop griping.Report

  22. It is early days. It is important for campaigns not to peak too soon. The big push by both camps will commence mid-to late-May; and people will not vote on issues, manifestos, promises or such like.
    They will vote by Gut-Feel; based on prejudices, who they like etc.
    If the vote is ‘In’ then watch out for trouble in the House, the country and in EU!Report

  23. It’s a question of where and how they were conducted and worded, also the number involved in answering the questionnaire. I think on this particular poll is concerned major variations are bound to take place with the ones who want to leave remaining strongly ideologically driven to go out of their way to take part in the polling where those likely to vote to remain in less likely to do the same. Report

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